Plan4 Co - AI for Predictive Analytics & Beyond

Predictive models give business and government users and managers new insights. By improving forecasts and using the rapidly changing available data, the new cloud platforms, AI and ML, there's an immediate opportunity to significantly improve the Forecasting, Contact Tracing, Planning and Decision Making for the current pandemic and beyond.

The new technologies can drastically reduce the time required to develop and maintain the predictive models and generating the forecasts.

Plan4Co has 3 levels of forecasting technology available:

  1. short term base system statistical forecasts - good
  2. multi-dimensional forecasting, identifying potential leads, lags and feedbacks between the series - better
  3. enhanced multi-dimensional forecasts using AI and ML - best

The first base level forecasts are relatively easy to prepare and they already compete very well with other well know groups and Ensemble forecasts. Further improvements in accuracy and reliability are then available with the next two levels of forecasting described above . . . multi-dimensional, AI and ML. 

How can we help you? What do you need? Want to join our team? Please contact us for more information, and for a better forecast for your particular location or situation.

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Here are examples of the types of base system forecasts that can be produced.

 

Click on the following links for our detailed forecasts - for 4 weeks into the future, and comparisons to the Ensemble Forecasts and to the actual data as it is received:

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News relevant to the Forecasts
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We use the latest data and tools from Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning and Statistics to add value to the AWS Forecast platform and to instruct and educate Governments and Organizations

•We produce plans for Optimized Preparedness, Responses and Risk Analysis

•We build better forecasts, with up to a 60% improvement in accuracy, by analyzing and using the most relevant data and the best tools

•We identify key leading indicators and anomalies which influence forecasts on a “real-time” basis during the pandemics.

We have successfully shown that significant improvements in COVID forecasting accuracy can be achieved using Amazon Forecast tools.  Using the power of the data analytics made available through Amazon to demonstrate the concept, the effort showed a significant improvement in the short-term accuracy of the forecasts by using advanced Machine Learning techniques.  The team demonstrated that hospitalizations and deaths were more accurately forecast. This was in comparison to some of the most commonly used forecasts, such as those provided by the well-known IHME model.

Amazon Web Services partnered with Plan4Co, Onica, and, more recently, Scientific Systems Company Inc., to demonstrate the effectiveness of Amazon Forecast. The goal is to use Amazon’s Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) to analyze numerous sets of data, trends and relationships that can influence disease projections across diverse states, counties and countries.

As severe travel restrictions are being gradually relaxed across the United States in order to minimize further damage to the economy, it is expected that there will be continued cases of infection and pockets of community transmission until vaccines become widely available. To prevent sporadic cases from becoming sources of another outbreak, rigorous contact tracing is essential. Compared to the traditional approach of interviewing patients, the cell phone location-based approach has proven to be an effective alternative to accomplish comprehensive contact tracing with much less labor demands. However, there are serious privacy and security issues associated with the cell phone location-based methods that may impede adoption and wide-spread use in the US. The effectiveness of cell phone contact tracing approach can be significantly improved with active cooperation from the public by alleviating the security and privacy concerns. We have a recently formed team of medical, academic, data science modeling and forecasting experts.

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The innovative team, known as Plan4Co, is made up of senior executives with experience with global medicine, finance, and statistics, including:

·         John R. Gibson, MD - Former Senior VP and Head of Global Development, Allergan; R&D Executive with Bristol Myers Squibb, Welcome Foundation Ltd.

·         Walter Wallach, MBA - Former CFO and COO, McGaw Inc., International Medication Systems, Triad Medical Inc.

·         Alan Cameron, PhD - Co-Developer State Space Forecasting, Co-Founder and CEO Mega Group Inc. (software development), Mattel Inc. (Corporate Director of Systems), Hunt Wesson Foods (Manager of Forecasting and Logistics).

·         Steven Pal, MBA- Mission Hospital Board of Trustees Chair, Former Corporate VP Global Strategic Marketing and Health Outcomes Research, Allergan.

·         University of California, Irvine (consultants)

      David A. Snow, PhD - Distinguished Professor Emeritus, School of Social Sciences, UCI. Dr. Snow has conducted research on homelessness in numerous cities throughout the country, including Orange County, California, as well as in Paris, Sao Paulo, and Tokyo.

·         Andrew Noymer, PhD – Associate Professor, Population Health and Disease Prevention, Public Health, UCI. Health and Mortality, especially selective mortality, and multi-cause interactions; the 1918 influenza pandemic.

 

Onica, a Rackspace Technology Company, is one of the largest and fastest-growing Amazon Web Services (AWS) Premier Consulting Partners in the world, helping companies enable, operate, and innovate in the cloud.

 

Scientific Systems Company Inc. Founded in 1990, SSCI has a successful record of completing over 500 projects worth over $300 Million for the Department of Defense, NASA, other government agencies, and industrial clients. Scientific Systems is headed by its founder and CEO Raman K. Mehra, PhD Harvard.

 

Amazon Web Services  (AWS) is a subsidiary of Amazon providing on-demand cloud computing platforms and APIs to individuals, companies, and governments.

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Building on its initial, innovative results, the team has submitted two applications to the NIH, NCI and HHS. The first innovation is to provide improved data synthesis and advanced forecasting techniques (COVID DSAFE).  It will use the Amazon Forecast Platform with the addition of advanced state-of-the-art multi-dimensional forecasting techniques to allow customers to display, use, access or download the relevant data and forecasts for their own projects. Typical operational forecasts will be weekly into the future using available daily data, now available for states, counties, zip codes, and countries.

 

The second innovation known as COVID PrivyTRAC is a contact tracing system on the AWS platform.  This system features advanced privacy and security features which will address many of the concerns in the unique US marketplace regarding privacy. It uses advanced statistical spatio-temporal models.

 

The partnership of Amazon Web Services, Onica, and Scientific Systems constitutes the kind of collaborative enterprise necessary to advance forecasting capabilities in a more fine-tuned and nuanced way that may well yield important actionable policy initiatives.

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How can we help you? What do you need? Please contact us for more information and for a forecast for your particular location or situation:

03/05/2024