Plan4 Co - Orange County Forecasts for COVID-19
The summary forecasts and results are shown in the table below.
Weekly Increases | ||||||||
45,131 | actual cases on | 8/22/2020 | 4 weeks ago | 1,828 | cases | |||
47,007 | actual cases on | 8/29/2020 | 3 weeks ago | 1,876 | cases | |||
48,726 | actual cases on | 9/5/2020 | 2 weeks ago | 1,719 | cases | |||
49,895 | actual cases on | 9/12/2020 | 1 week ago | 1,169 | cases | |||
50,999 | actual cases on | 9/19/2020 | - a | 13.0% | increase from 4 weeks ago | |||
- a | 8.5% | increase from 3 weeks ago | ||||||
- a | 4.7% | increase from 2 weeks ago | ||||||
- a | 2.2% | increase from 1 week ago | ||||||
52,491 | forecast cases on | 9/26/2020 | - a | 2.9% | increase in 1 weeks | 1,492 | cases | |
53,984 | forecast cases on | 10/3/2020 | - a | 5.9% | increase in 2 weeks | 1,492 | cases | |
55,476 | forecast cases on | 10/10/2020 | - a | 8.8% | increase in 3 weeks | 1,492 | cases | |
56,968 | forecast cases on | 10/17/2020 | - a | 11.7% | increase in 4 weeks | 1,492 | cases |
Comparison of the Plan4Co and CDC Ensemble Cases forecasts for OC should be available mid-week. e.g. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/files/2020-08-31-all-forecasted-cases-model-data.csv
The values for the recent actual cases data and the Plan4Co cases forecasts in the graph are in the table below:
Forecast Total Cases | Lower Confidence Bound | Upper Confidence Bound | Total Actual Cases | Forecast Error | % Error | New Actual Cases |
9/20/2020 | 51,212 | 50,839 | 51,584 | |
9/21/2020 | 51,425 | 50,755 | 52,096 | |
9/22/2020 | 51,638 | 50,637 | 52,640 | |
9/23/2020 | 51,852 | 50,485 | 53,218 | |
9/24/2020 | 52,065 | 50,301 | 53,828 | |
9/25/2020 | 52,278 | 50,086 | 54,470 | |
9/26/2020 | 52,491 | 49,843 | 55,140 | |
9/27/2020 | 52,704 | 49,572 | 55,837 | |
9/28/2020 | 52,918 | 49,275 | 56,560 | |
9/29/2020 | 53,131 | 48,954 | 57,308 | |
9/30/2020 | 53,344 | 48,609 | 58,079 | |
10/1/2020 | 53,557 | 48,241 | 58,873 | |
10/2/2020 | 53,770 | 47,851 | 59,689 | |
10/3/2020 | 53,984 | 47,441 | 60,526 | |
10/4/2020 | 54,197 | 47,010 | 61,384 | |
10/5/2020 | 54,410 | 46,559 | 62,261 | |
10/6/2020 | 54,623 | 46,089 | 63,157 | |
10/7/2020 | 54,836 | 45,600 | 64,072 | |
10/8/2020 | 55,050 | 45,094 | 65,006 | |
10/9/2020 | 55,263 | 44,569 | 65,957 | |
10/10/2020 | 55,476 | 44,027 | 66,925 | |
10/11/2020 | 55,689 | 43,468 | 67,910 | |
10/12/2020 | 55,902 | 42,892 | 68,912 | |
10/13/2020 | 56,116 | 42,301 | 69,930 | |
10/14/2020 | 56,329 | 41,693 | 70,965 | |
10/15/2020 | 56,542 | 41,070 | 72,014 | |
10/16/2020 | 56,755 | 40,431 | 73,079 | |
10/17/2020 | 56,968 | 39,777 | 74,159 |
Date | Total Actual Cases |
8/1/2020 | 36,703 |
8/2/2020 | 37,266 |
8/3/2020 | 37,705 |
8/4/2020 | 37,844 |
8/5/2020 | 37,907 |
8/6/2020 | 38,399 |
8/7/2020 | 38,459 |
8/8/2020 | 38,688 |
8/9/2020 | 39,244 |
8/10/2020 | 40,445 |
8/11/2020 | 41,205 |
8/12/2020 | 41,576 |
8/13/2020 | 42,019 |
8/14/2020 | 42,399 |
8/15/2020 | 42,811 |
8/16/2020 | 43,303 |
8/17/2020 | 43,621 |
8/18/2020 | 43,659 |
8/19/2020 | 43,938 |
8/20/2020 | 44,299 |
8/21/2020 | 44,625 |
8/22/2020 | 45,131 |
8/23/2020 | 45,267 |
8/24/2020 | 45,536 |
8/25/2020 | 45,737 |
8/26/2020 | 46,157 |
8/27/2020 | 46,449 |
8/28/2020 | 46,696 |
8/29/2020 | 47,007 |
8/30/2020 | 47,283 |
8/31/2020 | 47,392 |
9/1/2020 | 47,671 |
9/2/2020 | 47,871 |
9/3/2020 | 48,226 |
9/4/2020 | 48,488 |
9/5/2020 | 48,726 |
9/6/2020 | 48,931 |
9/7/2020 | 49,132 |
9/8/2020 | 49,214 |
9/9/2020 | 49,394 |
9/10/2020 | 49,617 |
9/11/2020 | 49,755 |
9/12/2020 | 49,895 |
9/13/2020 | 50,061 |
9/14/2020 | 50,149 |
9/15/2020 | 50,294 |
9/16/2020 | 50,414 |
9/17/2020 | 50,537 |
9/18/2020 | 50,733 |
9/19/2020 | 50,999 |
Forecast Statistic | Value |
Alpha | 1.00 |
Beta | 0.50 |
Gamma | 0.00 |
MASE | 0.14 |
SMAPE | 0.00 |
MAE | 44.08 |
RMSE | 54.16 |
The daily data used in this forecast is the Cumulative Number of new lab-confirmed positive COVID-19 cases reported by local health departments each day to the State of California. Here's the link to the CSV file with the daily County time series on cases and deaths and info about the CA open data portal. The data is published on weekdays and often on the weekends..
Please contact us for more information and for a forecast for your particular location or situation:
03/05/2024