Plan4 Co - Orange County Forecasts for COVID-19

Orange County - OC Base System Confirmed Case Forecasts - with data through Saturday 09/19/20, and forecasts 4 weeks ahead thru Saturday 10/17/20

Summary:

The summary forecasts and results are shown in the table below.

              Weekly Increases
45,131 actual cases on  8/22/2020     4 weeks ago 1,828 cases
47,007 actual cases on  8/29/2020     3 weeks ago 1,876 cases
48,726 actual cases on  9/5/2020     2 weeks ago 1,719 cases
49,895 actual cases on  9/12/2020     1 week ago 1,169 cases
50,999 actual cases on  9/19/2020  - a  13.0%  increase from 4 weeks ago  
       - a  8.5%  increase from 3 weeks ago  
       - a  4.7%  increase from 2 weeks ago  
       - a  2.2%  increase from 1 week ago  
                 
52,491 forecast cases on  9/26/2020  - a  2.9%  increase in 1 weeks 1,492 cases
53,984 forecast cases on  10/3/2020  - a  5.9%  increase in 2 weeks 1,492 cases
55,476 forecast cases on  10/10/2020  - a  8.8%  increase in 3 weeks 1,492 cases
56,968 forecast cases on  10/17/2020  - a  11.7%  increase in 4 weeks 1,492 cases

 

Comparison of the Plan4Co and CDC Ensemble Cases forecasts for OC should be available mid-week. e.g. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/files/2020-08-31-all-forecasted-cases-model-data.csv

 

The values for the recent actual cases data and the Plan4Co cases forecasts in the graph are in the table below:


    Forecast Total Cases Lower Confidence Bound Upper Confidence Bound Total Actual Cases Forecast Error % Error New Actual Cases
 
9/20/2020   51,212 50,839 51,584
9/21/2020   51,425 50,755 52,096
9/22/2020   51,638 50,637 52,640
9/23/2020   51,852 50,485 53,218
9/24/2020   52,065 50,301 53,828
9/25/2020   52,278 50,086 54,470
9/26/2020   52,491 49,843 55,140
9/27/2020   52,704 49,572 55,837
9/28/2020   52,918 49,275 56,560
9/29/2020   53,131 48,954 57,308
9/30/2020   53,344 48,609 58,079
10/1/2020   53,557 48,241 58,873
10/2/2020   53,770 47,851 59,689
10/3/2020   53,984 47,441 60,526
10/4/2020   54,197 47,010 61,384
10/5/2020   54,410 46,559 62,261
10/6/2020   54,623 46,089 63,157
10/7/2020   54,836 45,600 64,072
10/8/2020   55,050 45,094 65,006
10/9/2020   55,263 44,569 65,957
10/10/2020   55,476 44,027 66,925
10/11/2020   55,689 43,468 67,910
10/12/2020   55,902 42,892 68,912
10/13/2020   56,116 42,301 69,930
10/14/2020   56,329 41,693 70,965
10/15/2020   56,542 41,070 72,014
10/16/2020   56,755 40,431 73,079
10/17/2020   56,968 39,777 74,159

 

Date Total Actual Cases
8/1/2020 36,703
8/2/2020 37,266
8/3/2020 37,705
8/4/2020 37,844
8/5/2020 37,907
8/6/2020 38,399
8/7/2020 38,459
8/8/2020 38,688
8/9/2020 39,244
8/10/2020 40,445
8/11/2020 41,205
8/12/2020 41,576
8/13/2020 42,019
8/14/2020 42,399
8/15/2020 42,811
8/16/2020 43,303
8/17/2020 43,621
8/18/2020 43,659
8/19/2020 43,938
8/20/2020 44,299
8/21/2020 44,625
8/22/2020 45,131
8/23/2020 45,267
8/24/2020 45,536
8/25/2020 45,737
8/26/2020 46,157
8/27/2020 46,449
8/28/2020 46,696
8/29/2020 47,007
8/30/2020 47,283
8/31/2020 47,392
9/1/2020 47,671
9/2/2020 47,871
9/3/2020 48,226
9/4/2020 48,488
9/5/2020 48,726
9/6/2020 48,931
9/7/2020 49,132
9/8/2020 49,214
9/9/2020 49,394
9/10/2020 49,617
9/11/2020 49,755
9/12/2020 49,895
9/13/2020 50,061
9/14/2020 50,149
9/15/2020 50,294
9/16/2020 50,414
9/17/2020 50,537
9/18/2020 50,733
9/19/2020 50,999

 

Forecast Statistic Value
Alpha 1.00
Beta 0.50
Gamma 0.00
MASE 0.14
SMAPE 0.00
MAE 44.08
RMSE 54.16

The Data used in this Forecast

The daily data used in this forecast is the Cumulative Number of new lab-confirmed positive COVID-19 cases reported by local health departments each day to the State of California. Here's the link to the CSV file with the daily County time series on cases and deaths and info about the CA open data portal. The data is published on weekdays and often on the weekends..

The Prior Weeks Case Forecasts

Please contact us for more information and for a forecast for your particular location or situation:

03/05/2024