Plan4 Co - US Total Cases Forecasts for COVID-19

US Total Base System Cases Forecasts - with data through Saturday, 09/12/20, and forecasts 4 weeks ahead thru Saturday, 10/10/20

Summary:

              Weekly Increases
5,361,165 actual cases on  8/15/2020     4 weeks ago 316,301 cases
5,667,070 actual cases on  8/22/2020     3 weeks ago 305,905 cases
5,961,094 actual cases on  8/29/2020     2 weeks ago 294,024 cases
6,244,970 actual cases on  9/5/2020     1 week ago   283,876 cases
6,485,123 actual cases on  9/12/2020  - a  21.0%  increase from 4 weeks ago  
       - a  14.4%  increase from 3 weeks ago  
       - a  8.8%  increase from 2 weeks ago  
       - a  3.8%  increase from 1 week ago  
                 
6,772,034 forecast cases on  9/19/2020  - a  4.4%  increase in 1 week 286,911 cases
7,058,946 forecast cases on  9/26/2020  - a  8.8%  increase in 2 weeks 286,913 cases
7,345,859 forecast deaths on  10/3/2020  - a  13.3%  increase in 3 weeks 286,913 cases
7,632,772 forecast deaths on  10/10/2020  - a  17.7%  increase in 4 weeks 286,913 cases

 

The graph and the tables below show the detailed forecasts and 95% confidence intervals:

The values for the recent actual data and the forecasts in the graph are in the table below:


    Forecast Total Cases Lower Confidence Bound Upper Confidence Bound Total Actual Cases Forecast Error % Error New Actual Cases

 

9/13/2020   6,526,108 6,511,541 6,540,676 6,520,122 5,986 0.1% 34,999
9/14/2020   6,567,096 6,540,870 6,593,322 6,553,652 13,444 0.2% 33,530
9/15/2020   6,608,084 6,568,926 6,647,241 6,592,342 15,742 0.2% 38,690
9/16/2020   6,649,071 6,595,644 6,702,498 6,630,051 19,020 0.3% 37,709
9/17/2020   6,690,059 6,621,089 6,759,028 6,674,411 15,648 0.2% 44,360
9/18/2020   6,731,046 6,645,336 6,816,756 6,723,933 7,113 0.1% 49,522
9/19/2020   6,772,034 6,668,456 6,875,611 6,764,970 7,064 0.1% 41,037

 

9/20/2020   6,813,021 6,690,511 6,935,531
9/21/2020   6,854,009 6,711,555 6,996,463
9/22/2020   6,894,996 6,731,634 7,058,359
9/23/2020   6,935,984 6,750,789 7,121,178
9/24/2020   6,976,971 6,769,059 7,184,884
9/25/2020   7,017,959 6,786,474 7,249,443
9/26/2020   7,058,946 6,803,065 7,314,827
9/27/2020   7,099,934 6,818,858 7,381,009
9/28/2020   7,140,921 6,833,878 7,447,964
9/29/2020   7,181,909 6,848,147 7,515,671
9/30/2020   7,222,896 6,861,685 7,584,108
10/1/2020   7,263,884 6,874,510 7,653,257
10/2/2020   7,304,871 6,886,642 7,723,101
10/3/2020   7,345,859 6,898,095 7,793,623
10/4/2020   7,386,846 6,908,885 7,864,808
10/5/2020   7,427,834 6,919,026 7,936,642
10/6/2020   7,468,821 6,928,531 8,009,112
10/7/2020   7,509,809 6,937,414 8,082,204
10/8/2020   7,550,796 6,945,685 8,155,908
10/9/2020   7,591,784 6,953,356 8,230,212
10/10/2020   7,632,772 6,960,438 8,305,105

 

Date Total Actual Cases
 
7/18/2020 3,711,413
7/19/2020 3,773,260
7/20/2020 3,834,677
7/21/2020 3,899,211
7/22/2020 3,970,121
7/23/2020 4,038,816
7/24/2020 4,112,531
7/25/2020 4,178,970
7/26/2020 4,233,923
7/27/2020 4,290,337
7/28/2020 4,356,206
7/29/2020 4,426,982
7/30/2020 4,495,015
7/31/2020 4,562,107
8/1/2020 4,620,592
8/2/2020 4,668,172
8/3/2020 4,713,540
8/4/2020 4,771,080
8/5/2020 4,823,890
8/6/2020 4,883,582
8/7/2020 4,941,755
8/8/2020 4,997,929
8/9/2020 5,044,864
8/10/2020 5,094,400
8/11/2020 5,141,208
8/12/2020 5,197,411
8/13/2020 5,248,958
8/14/2020 5,313,252
8/15/2020 5,361,165
8/16/2020 5,403,213
8/17/2020 5,438,325
8/18/2020 5,483,388
8/19/2020 5,529,824
8/20/2020 5,573,847
8/21/2020 5,622,470
8/22/2020 5,667,070
8/23/2020 5,701,645
8/24/2020 5,739,536
8/25/2020 5,777,710
8/26/2020 5,821,819
8/27/2020 5,867,785
8/28/2020 5,913,941
8/29/2020 5,961,094
8/30/2020 5,996,431
8/31/2020 6,030,587
9/1/2020 6,073,840
9/2/2020 6,113,510
9/3/2020 6,150,016
9/4/2020 6,200,518
9/5/2020 6,244,970
9/6/2020 6,276,365
9/7/2020 6,300,622
9/8/2020 6,327,009
9/9/2020 6,360,212
9/10/2020 6,396,100
9/11/2020 6,443,652
9/12/2020 6,485,123


Forecast Statistics Value
Alpha 1.00
Beta 0.50
Gamma 0.00
MASE 0.06
SMAPE 0.00
MAE 3,567.37
RMSE 4,436.79
Alpha 1.00
Beta 0.50
Gamma 0.00
MASE 0.12
SMAPE 0.00
MAE 6,526.70
RMSE 8,271.50

The Data used in this Forecast

The Prior Weeks Forecasts

Please contact us for more information and for a forecast for your particular location or situation:

03/05/2024