Plan4 Co - US Total Cases Forecasts for COVID-19
Weekly Increases | ||||||||
5,361,165 | actual cases on | 8/15/2020 | 4 weeks ago | 316,301 | cases | |||
5,667,070 | actual cases on | 8/22/2020 | 3 weeks ago | 305,905 | cases | |||
5,961,094 | actual cases on | 8/29/2020 | 2 weeks ago | 294,024 | cases | |||
6,244,970 | actual cases on | 9/5/2020 | 1 week ago | 283,876 | cases | |||
6,485,123 | actual cases on | 9/12/2020 | - a | 21.0% | increase from 4 weeks ago | |||
- a | 14.4% | increase from 3 weeks ago | ||||||
- a | 8.8% | increase from 2 weeks ago | ||||||
- a | 3.8% | increase from 1 week ago | ||||||
6,772,034 | forecast cases on | 9/19/2020 | - a | 4.4% | increase in 1 week | 286,911 | cases | |
7,058,946 | forecast cases on | 9/26/2020 | - a | 8.8% | increase in 2 weeks | 286,913 | cases | |
7,345,859 | forecast deaths on | 10/3/2020 | - a | 13.3% | increase in 3 weeks | 286,913 | cases | |
7,632,772 | forecast deaths on | 10/10/2020 | - a | 17.7% | increase in 4 weeks | 286,913 | cases |
The graph and the tables below show the detailed forecasts
and 95% confidence intervals:
The values for the recent actual data and the forecasts in the graph are in the table below:
Forecast Total Cases | Lower Confidence Bound | Upper Confidence Bound | Total Actual Cases | Forecast Error | % Error | New Actual Cases |
9/13/2020 | 6,526,108 | 6,511,541 | 6,540,676 | 6,520,122 | 5,986 | 0.1% | 34,999 | |
9/14/2020 | 6,567,096 | 6,540,870 | 6,593,322 | 6,553,652 | 13,444 | 0.2% | 33,530 | |
9/15/2020 | 6,608,084 | 6,568,926 | 6,647,241 | 6,592,342 | 15,742 | 0.2% | 38,690 | |
9/16/2020 | 6,649,071 | 6,595,644 | 6,702,498 | 6,630,051 | 19,020 | 0.3% | 37,709 | |
9/17/2020 | 6,690,059 | 6,621,089 | 6,759,028 | 6,674,411 | 15,648 | 0.2% | 44,360 | |
9/18/2020 | 6,731,046 | 6,645,336 | 6,816,756 | 6,723,933 | 7,113 | 0.1% | 49,522 | |
9/19/2020 | 6,772,034 | 6,668,456 | 6,875,611 | 6,764,970 | 7,064 | 0.1% | 41,037 |
9/20/2020 | 6,813,021 | 6,690,511 | 6,935,531 | |
9/21/2020 | 6,854,009 | 6,711,555 | 6,996,463 | |
9/22/2020 | 6,894,996 | 6,731,634 | 7,058,359 | |
9/23/2020 | 6,935,984 | 6,750,789 | 7,121,178 | |
9/24/2020 | 6,976,971 | 6,769,059 | 7,184,884 | |
9/25/2020 | 7,017,959 | 6,786,474 | 7,249,443 | |
9/26/2020 | 7,058,946 | 6,803,065 | 7,314,827 | |
9/27/2020 | 7,099,934 | 6,818,858 | 7,381,009 | |
9/28/2020 | 7,140,921 | 6,833,878 | 7,447,964 | |
9/29/2020 | 7,181,909 | 6,848,147 | 7,515,671 | |
9/30/2020 | 7,222,896 | 6,861,685 | 7,584,108 | |
10/1/2020 | 7,263,884 | 6,874,510 | 7,653,257 | |
10/2/2020 | 7,304,871 | 6,886,642 | 7,723,101 | |
10/3/2020 | 7,345,859 | 6,898,095 | 7,793,623 | |
10/4/2020 | 7,386,846 | 6,908,885 | 7,864,808 | |
10/5/2020 | 7,427,834 | 6,919,026 | 7,936,642 | |
10/6/2020 | 7,468,821 | 6,928,531 | 8,009,112 | |
10/7/2020 | 7,509,809 | 6,937,414 | 8,082,204 | |
10/8/2020 | 7,550,796 | 6,945,685 | 8,155,908 | |
10/9/2020 | 7,591,784 | 6,953,356 | 8,230,212 | |
10/10/2020 | 7,632,772 | 6,960,438 | 8,305,105 |
Date | Total Actual Cases |
7/18/2020 | 3,711,413 |
7/19/2020 | 3,773,260 |
7/20/2020 | 3,834,677 |
7/21/2020 | 3,899,211 |
7/22/2020 | 3,970,121 |
7/23/2020 | 4,038,816 |
7/24/2020 | 4,112,531 |
7/25/2020 | 4,178,970 |
7/26/2020 | 4,233,923 |
7/27/2020 | 4,290,337 |
7/28/2020 | 4,356,206 |
7/29/2020 | 4,426,982 |
7/30/2020 | 4,495,015 |
7/31/2020 | 4,562,107 |
8/1/2020 | 4,620,592 |
8/2/2020 | 4,668,172 |
8/3/2020 | 4,713,540 |
8/4/2020 | 4,771,080 |
8/5/2020 | 4,823,890 |
8/6/2020 | 4,883,582 |
8/7/2020 | 4,941,755 |
8/8/2020 | 4,997,929 |
8/9/2020 | 5,044,864 |
8/10/2020 | 5,094,400 |
8/11/2020 | 5,141,208 |
8/12/2020 | 5,197,411 |
8/13/2020 | 5,248,958 |
8/14/2020 | 5,313,252 |
8/15/2020 | 5,361,165 |
8/16/2020 | 5,403,213 |
8/17/2020 | 5,438,325 |
8/18/2020 | 5,483,388 |
8/19/2020 | 5,529,824 |
8/20/2020 | 5,573,847 |
8/21/2020 | 5,622,470 |
8/22/2020 | 5,667,070 |
8/23/2020 | 5,701,645 |
8/24/2020 | 5,739,536 |
8/25/2020 | 5,777,710 |
8/26/2020 | 5,821,819 |
8/27/2020 | 5,867,785 |
8/28/2020 | 5,913,941 |
8/29/2020 | 5,961,094 |
8/30/2020 | 5,996,431 |
8/31/2020 | 6,030,587 |
9/1/2020 | 6,073,840 |
9/2/2020 | 6,113,510 |
9/3/2020 | 6,150,016 |
9/4/2020 | 6,200,518 |
9/5/2020 | 6,244,970 |
9/6/2020 | 6,276,365 |
9/7/2020 | 6,300,622 |
9/8/2020 | 6,327,009 |
9/9/2020 | 6,360,212 |
9/10/2020 | 6,396,100 |
9/11/2020 | 6,443,652 |
9/12/2020 | 6,485,123 |
Forecast Statistics | Value |
Alpha | 1.00 |
Beta | 0.50 |
Gamma | 0.00 |
MASE | 0.06 |
SMAPE | 0.00 |
MAE | 3,567.37 |
RMSE | 4,436.79 |
Alpha | 1.00 |
Beta | 0.50 |
Gamma | 0.00 |
MASE | 0.12 |
SMAPE | 0.00 |
MAE | 6,526.70 |
RMSE | 8,271.50 |
Please contact us for more information and for a forecast for your particular location or situation:
03/05/2024