Plan4 Co - California Forecasts for COVID-19

 

California - CA State Total Base System Deaths Forecasts for COVID Deaths - with Data through 09/19/20, and forecasts 4 weeks ahead thru 10/17/20

Summary:

  • These Plan4Co base system daily deaths forecasts show that CA Total Cumulative Deaths will grow consistently over the next 4 weeks by  18.9% versus 23.5% actual growth over the prior 4 weeks
  • These forecasts are very close to the weekly CDC - Ensemble Forecasts in the CalCAT - California COVID-19 Assessment Tool shown below. The Ensemble forecasts are normally updated each mid-week. The current Plan4Co forecast for Week 1, September 26, of 15,667 is a bit higher than the Ensemble Forecast of 15,505
  • The forecast for Week 1, ending September 26, will be compared to the actual reported data.

Current Weeks Forecasts

12,134 actual deaths on  8/22/2020     4 weeks ago      
12,905 actual deaths on  8/29/2020     3 weeks ago      
13,709 actual deaths on  9/5/2020     2 weeks ago      
14,329 actual deaths on  9/12/2020     1 week ago      
14,987 actual deaths on  9/19/2020  - a  23.5%  increase from 4 weeks ago      
         - a  16.1%  increase from 3 weeks ago      
         - a  9.3%  increase from 2 weeks ago      
         - a  4.6%  increase from 1 week ago      
                Ensemble Forecasts  Data Thru 9/19/2020
15,667 forecast deaths on  9/26/2020  - a  4.5%  increase in 1 week 15,504 US Ensemble Fcst
16,388 forecast deaths on  10/3/2020  - a  9.3%  increase in 2 weeks 15,945 US Ensemble Fcst
17,088 forecast deaths on  10/10/2020  - a  14.0%  increase in 3 weeks 16,426 US Ensemble Fcst
17,816 forecast deaths on  10/17/2020  - a  18.9%  increase in 4 weeks   US Ensemble Fcst

The values for the recent actual data and the forecasts for deaths in the graph are in the table below:


    Forecast Total Deaths Lower Confidence Bound Upper Confidence Bound Total Actual Deaths Forecast Error Deaths % Error New Actual Deaths
 
9/20/2020   15,063 14,932 15,193
9/21/2020   15,179 15,002 15,356
9/22/2020   15,275 15,055 15,495
9/23/2020   15,399 15,138 15,660
9/24/2020   15,524 15,222 15,827
9/25/2020   15,591 15,247 15,934
9/26/2020   15,667 15,277 16,057

 
9/27/2020   15,784 15,352 16,215
9/28/2020   15,879 15,405 16,353
9/29/2020   16,003 15,486 16,520
9/30/2020   16,129 15,568 16,689
10/1/2020   16,195 15,590 16,800
10/2/2020   16,271 15,616 16,926
10/3/2020   16,388 15,687 17,089

 

10/4/2020   16,483 15,735 17,232
10/5/2020   16,607 15,812 17,403
10/6/2020   16,733 15,888 17,577
10/7/2020   16,799 15,905 17,693
10/8/2020   16,875 15,927 17,823
10/9/2020   16,992 15,993 17,991
10/10/2020   17,088 16,037 18,139

 

10/11/2020   17,212 16,108 18,315
10/12/2020   17,337 16,180 18,494
10/13/2020   17,404 16,192 18,615
10/14/2020   17,480 16,210 18,749
10/15/2020   17,597 16,271 18,922
10/16/2020   17,692 16,310 19,074
10/17/2020   17,816 16,377 19,255

 

Date Total Actual Deaths
 
7/25/2020 8,416
7/26/2020 8,445
7/27/2020 8,518
7/28/2020 8,715
7/29/2020 8,909
7/30/2020 9,005
7/31/2020 9,224
8/1/2020 9,356
8/2/2020 9,388
8/3/2020 9,501
8/4/2020 9,703
8/5/2020 9,869
8/6/2020 10,011
8/7/2020 10,189
8/8/2020 10,293
8/9/2020 10,359
8/10/2020 10,468
8/11/2020 10,648
8/12/2020 10,808
8/13/2020 10,996
8/14/2020 11,147
8/15/2020 11,224
8/16/2020 11,242
8/17/2020 11,342
8/18/2020 11,523
8/19/2020 11,686
8/20/2020 11,821
8/21/2020 11,988
8/22/2020 12,134
8/23/2020 12,152
8/24/2020 12,257
8/25/2020 12,407
8/26/2020 12,550
8/27/2020 12,690
8/28/2020 12,834
8/29/2020 12,905
8/30/2020 12,933
8/31/2020 13,018
9/1/2020 13,163
9/2/2020 13,327
9/3/2020 13,490
9/4/2020 13,643
9/5/2020 13,709
9/6/2020 13,726
9/7/2020 13,758
9/8/2020 13,841
9/9/2020 13,978
9/10/2020 14,089
9/11/2020 14,251
9/12/2020 14,329
9/13/2020 14,385
9/14/2020 14,451
9/15/2020 14,615
9/16/2020 14,721
9/17/2020 14,812
9/18/2020 14,912
9/19/2020 14,987

 

Forecast Statistics Value
Alpha 0.83
Beta 0.08
Gamma 0.08
MASE 0.21
SMAPE 0.00
MAE 24.96
RMSE 30.27

The Data in this CA Deaths Forecast

CalCAT - California COVID-19 Assessment Tool - provides daily updates of CA Total Deaths and Ensemble Death forecasts.

The Prior Weeks CA Deaths Forecasts

Please contact  CA
 for more information and for a forecast for your particular location or situation:

02/12/2022

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