Plan4 Co - Orange County Deaths Forecasts for COVID-19
Weekly Increases | ||||||||||
896 | actual deaths on | 8/22/2020 | 4 weeks ago | 86 | deaths | |||||
975 | actual deaths on | 8/29/2020 | 3 weeks ago | 79 | deaths | |||||
1,051 | actual deaths on | 9/5/2020 | 2 weeks ago | 76 | deaths | |||||
1,093 | actual deaths on | 9/12/2020 | 1 week ago | 42 | deaths | Totals | ||||
1,127 | actual deaths on | 9/19/2020 | - a | 25.8% | increase from 4 weeks ago | 231 | deaths | |||
- a | 15.6% | increase from 3 weeks ago | 152 | deaths | ||||||
- a | 7.2% | increase from 2 weeks ago | 76 | deaths | ||||||
- a | 3.1% | increase from 1 week ago | 34 | deaths | ||||||
Weekly Increases | Totals | |||||||||
1,157 | forecast deaths on | 9/26/2020 | - a | 2.7% | increase in 1 weeks | 30 | deaths | 30 | deaths | |
1,181 | forecast deaths on | 10/3/2020 | - a | 4.8% | increase in 2 weeks | 25 | deaths | 54 | deaths | |
1,216 | forecast deaths on | 10/10/2020 | - a | 7.9% | increase in 3 weeks | 34 | deaths | 89 | deaths | |
1,256 | forecast deaths on | 10/17/2020 | - a | 11.4% | increase in 4 weeks | 40 | deaths | 129 | deaths | |
CalCAT Ensemble Forecast Deaths | COVID Assessment Tool - Downloaded on 2020-09-24 | |||||||||
Target | Target End Date | Weekly Increases | Totals | |||||||
1,144 | 1 wk ahead deaths | 9/26/2020 | - a | 1.5% | increase in 1 weeks | 17 | deaths | 17 | deaths | |
1,176 | 2 wk ahead deaths | 10/3/2020 | - a | 4.3% | increase in 2 weeks | 32 | deaths | 49 | deaths | |
1,207 | 3 wk ahead deaths | 10/10/2020 | - a | 7.1% | increase in 3 weeks | 31 | deaths | 80 | deaths | |
1,240 | 4 wk ahead deaths | 10/17/2020 | - a | 10.0% | increase in 4 weeks | 33 | deaths | 113 | deaths |
The values for the recent actual data and the Plan4Co deaths forecasts in the graph are in the table below:
Forecast Total Deaths | Lower Confidence Bound | Upper Confidence Bound | Total Actual Deaths | Forecast Error | % Error | New Actual Deaths |
9/20/2020 | 1,128 | 1,108 | 1,149 | 1,128 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | |
9/21/2020 | 1,124 | 1,091 | 1,157 | 1,128 | -4 | -0.3% | 0 | |
9/22/2020 | 1,130 | 1,085 | 1,175 | 1,150 | -20 | -1.8% | 22 | |
9/23/2020 | 1,141 | 1,083 | 1,199 | 1,176 | -35 | -3.1% | 26 |
9/24/2020 | 1,154 | 1,083 | 1,224 | |
9/25/2020 | 1,156 | 1,071 | 1,240 | |
9/26/2020 | 1,157 | 1,058 | 1,256 | |
9/27/2020 | 1,153 | 1,039 | 1,267 | |
9/28/2020 | 1,159 | 1,029 | 1,288 | |
9/29/2020 | 1,170 | 1,024 | 1,315 | |
9/30/2020 | 1,182 | 1,020 | 1,345 | |
10/1/2020 | 1,184 | 1,004 | 1,364 | |
10/2/2020 | 1,186 | 988 | 1,383 | |
10/3/2020 | 1,181 | 965 | 1,398 | |
10/4/2020 | 1,187 | 952 | 1,422 | |
10/5/2020 | 1,198 | 944 | 1,453 | |
10/6/2020 | 1,211 | 936 | 1,485 | |
10/7/2020 | 1,213 | 918 | 1,508 | |
10/8/2020 | 1,214 | 898 | 1,530 | |
10/9/2020 | 1,210 | 873 | 1,547 | |
10/10/2020 | 1,216 | 857 | 1,575 | |
10/11/2020 | 1,227 | 846 | 1,608 | |
10/12/2020 | 1,239 | 835 | 1,643 | |
10/13/2020 | 1,242 | 814 | 1,669 | |
10/14/2020 | 1,243 | 792 | 1,694 | |
10/15/2020 | 1,239 | 764 | 1,713 | |
10/16/2020 | 1,245 | 745 | 1,744 | |
10/17/2020 | 1,256 | 732 | 1,779 |
Date | Total Actual Deaths |
7/25/2020 | 562 |
7/26/2020 | 564 |
7/27/2020 | 566 |
7/28/2020 | 581 |
7/29/2020 | 587 |
7/30/2020 | 604 |
7/31/2020 | 618 |
8/1/2020 | 649 |
8/2/2020 | 651 |
8/3/2020 | 651 |
8/4/2020 | 653 |
8/5/2020 | 665 |
8/6/2020 | 697 |
8/7/2020 | 704 |
8/8/2020 | 720 |
8/9/2020 | 726 |
8/10/2020 | 724 |
8/11/2020 | 734 |
8/12/2020 | 745 |
8/13/2020 | 769 |
8/14/2020 | 789 |
8/15/2020 | 809 |
8/16/2020 | 810 |
8/17/2020 | 810 |
8/18/2020 | 815 |
8/19/2020 | 833 |
8/20/2020 | 856 |
8/21/2020 | 882 |
8/22/2020 | 896 |
8/23/2020 | 897 |
8/24/2020 | 897 |
8/25/2020 | 912 |
8/26/2020 | 918 |
8/27/2020 | 947 |
8/28/2020 | 956 |
8/29/2020 | 975 |
8/30/2020 | 979 |
8/31/2020 | 980 |
9/1/2020 | 988 |
9/2/2020 | 1,007 |
9/3/2020 | 1,018 |
9/4/2020 | 1,042 |
9/5/2020 | 1,051 |
9/6/2020 | 1,053 |
9/7/2020 | 1,053 |
9/8/2020 | 1,056 |
9/9/2020 | 1,065 |
9/10/2020 | 1,069 |
9/11/2020 | 1,081 |
9/12/2020 | 1,093 |
9/13/2020 | 1,093 |
9/14/2020 | 1,093 |
9/15/2020 | 1,105 |
9/16/2020 | 1,111 |
9/17/2020 | 1,115 |
9/18/2020 | 1,123 |
9/19/2020 | 1,127 |
Forecast Statistics | Value |
Alpha | 1.00 |
Beta | 0.25 |
Gamma | 0.001 |
MASE | 0.49 |
SMAPE | 0.01 |
MAE | 5.56 |
RMSE | 7.09 |
The daily data of deaths used in this forecast is reported by local health departments each day to the State of California. Here's the link to the CSV file with the daily County time series on cases and deaths and info about the CA open data portal. The data is published on weekdays.
Please contact us for more information and for a forecast for your particular location or situation:
03/05/2024