OC Deaths Forecasts

 

Plan4 Co - Orange County Deaths Forecasts for COVID-19

Orange County - OC Base System Deaths Forecasts for COVID Deaths - with Data through Saturday 09/19/20, and forecasts 4 weeks ahead thru 10/17/20

Summary:

              Weekly Increases    
896 actual deaths on  8/22/2020     4 weeks ago 86 deaths    
975 actual deaths on  8/29/2020     3 weeks ago 79 deaths    
1,051 actual deaths on  9/5/2020     2 weeks ago 76 deaths    
1,093 actual deaths on  9/12/2020     1 week ago 42 deaths Totals  
1,127 actual deaths on  9/19/2020  - a  25.8%  increase from 4 weeks ago   231 deaths
       - a  15.6%  increase from 3 weeks ago   152 deaths
       - a  7.2%  increase from 2 weeks ago   76 deaths
       - a  3.1%  increase from 1 week ago   34 deaths
              Weekly Increases Totals  
1,157 forecast deaths on  9/26/2020  - a  2.7%  increase in 1 weeks 30 deaths 30 deaths
1,181 forecast deaths on  10/3/2020  - a  4.8%  increase in 2 weeks 25 deaths 54 deaths
1,216 forecast deaths on  10/10/2020  - a  7.9%  increase in 3 weeks 34 deaths 89 deaths
1,256 forecast deaths on  10/17/2020  - a  11.4%  increase in 4 weeks 40 deaths 129 deaths
                     
                     
CalCAT Ensemble Forecast Deaths COVID Assessment Tool - Downloaded on 2020-09-24      
  Target Target End Date       Weekly Increases Totals  
1,144 1 wk ahead deaths 9/26/2020  - a  1.5%  increase in 1 weeks 17 deaths 17 deaths
1,176 2 wk ahead deaths 10/3/2020  - a  4.3%  increase in 2 weeks 32 deaths 49 deaths
1,207 3 wk ahead deaths 10/10/2020  - a  7.1%  increase in 3 weeks 31 deaths 80 deaths
1,240 4 wk ahead deaths 10/17/2020  - a  10.0%  increase in 4 weeks 33 deaths 113 deaths

The values for the recent actual data and the Plan4Co deaths forecasts in the graph are in the table below:


 

    Forecast Total Deaths Lower Confidence Bound Upper Confidence Bound Total Actual Deaths Forecast Error % Error New Actual Deaths

 

9/20/2020   1,128 1,108 1,149 1,128 0 0.0% 1
9/21/2020   1,124 1,091 1,157 1,128 -4 -0.3% 0
9/22/2020   1,130 1,085 1,175 1,150 -20 -1.8% 22
9/23/2020   1,141 1,083 1,199 1,176 -35 -3.1% 26

 

9/24/2020   1,154 1,083 1,224
9/25/2020   1,156 1,071 1,240
9/26/2020   1,157 1,058 1,256
9/27/2020   1,153 1,039 1,267
9/28/2020   1,159 1,029 1,288
9/29/2020   1,170 1,024 1,315
9/30/2020   1,182 1,020 1,345
10/1/2020   1,184 1,004 1,364
10/2/2020   1,186 988 1,383
10/3/2020   1,181 965 1,398
10/4/2020   1,187 952 1,422
10/5/2020   1,198 944 1,453
10/6/2020   1,211 936 1,485
10/7/2020   1,213 918 1,508
10/8/2020   1,214 898 1,530
10/9/2020   1,210 873 1,547
10/10/2020   1,216 857 1,575
10/11/2020   1,227 846 1,608
10/12/2020   1,239 835 1,643
10/13/2020   1,242 814 1,669
10/14/2020   1,243 792 1,694
10/15/2020   1,239 764 1,713
10/16/2020   1,245 745 1,744
10/17/2020   1,256 732 1,779

 

Date Total Actual Deaths

 

7/25/2020 562
7/26/2020 564
7/27/2020 566
7/28/2020 581
7/29/2020 587
7/30/2020 604
7/31/2020 618
8/1/2020 649
8/2/2020 651
8/3/2020 651
8/4/2020 653
8/5/2020 665
8/6/2020 697
8/7/2020 704
8/8/2020 720
8/9/2020 726
8/10/2020 724
8/11/2020 734
8/12/2020 745
8/13/2020 769
8/14/2020 789
8/15/2020 809
8/16/2020 810
8/17/2020 810
8/18/2020 815
8/19/2020 833
8/20/2020 856
8/21/2020 882
8/22/2020 896
8/23/2020 897
8/24/2020 897
8/25/2020 912
8/26/2020 918
8/27/2020 947
8/28/2020 956
8/29/2020 975
8/30/2020 979
8/31/2020 980
9/1/2020 988
9/2/2020 1,007
9/3/2020 1,018
9/4/2020 1,042
9/5/2020 1,051
9/6/2020 1,053
9/7/2020 1,053
9/8/2020 1,056
9/9/2020 1,065
9/10/2020 1,069
9/11/2020 1,081
9/12/2020 1,093
9/13/2020 1,093
9/14/2020 1,093
9/15/2020 1,105
9/16/2020 1,111
9/17/2020 1,115
9/18/2020 1,123
9/19/2020 1,127


Forecast Statistics Value
Alpha 1.00
Beta 0.25
Gamma 0.001
MASE 0.49
SMAPE 0.01
MAE 5.56
RMSE 7.09

The Data used in this Forecast

The daily data of deaths used in this forecast is reported by local health departments each day to the State of California. Here's the link to the CSV file with the daily County time series on cases and deaths and info about the CA open data portal. The data is published on weekdays.

The Prior Weeks Deaths Forecasts

Please contact us for more information and for a forecast for your particular location or situation:

03/05/2024