Plan4 Co - California Cases Forecasts for COVID-19

 

California - CA State Total Base System Cases Forecasts for COVID  Cases - with Data through 08/29, and forecasts 4 weeks ahead thru 09/26/20

Summary:

  • These Plan4Co base system daily Cases forecasts show that CA Total Cases will grow consistently over the next 4 weeks by 13.3% versus 17.9% actual growth over the prior 4 weeks. The forecast increase in the number of CA Cases is 25,998 cases per week.
  • Ensemble forecasts are newly available for CA Cases - updated each mid-week. Ensemble Forecasts and Reported Data for CA
    • . The Ensemble Forecast from last week for Week 1 (ending 09/26) is significantly lower by 12% (23,180) versus the current Plan4Co forecast of 25,998 cases.
  • The forecast for Week 1, ending September 26, will be compared to the actual reported data.

Current Weeks Forecasts

              Weekly Increases
664,435 actual cases on  8/22/2020     4 weeks ago 40,562 cases
702,038 actual cases on  8/29/2020     3 weeks ago 37,603 cases
735,314 actual cases on  9/5/2020     2 weeks ago 33,276 cases
758,933 actual cases on  9/12/2020     1 week ago   23,619 cases
783,313 actual cases on  9/19/2020  - a  17.9%  increase from 4 weeks ago  
       - a  11.6%  increase from 3 weeks ago  
       - a  6.5%  increase from 2 weeks ago  
       - a  3.2%  increase from 1 week ago  
                 
809,310 forecast cases on  9/26/2020  - a  3.3%  increase in 1 week 25,997 cases
835,308 forecast cases on  10/3/2020  - a  6.6%  increase in 2 weeks 25,998 cases
861,306 forecast deaths on  10/10/2020  - a  10.0%  increase in 3 weeks 25,998 cases
887,303 forecast deaths on  10/17/2020  - a  13.3%  increase in 4 weeks 25,998 cases

 

Ensemble Forecasts - Weekly Increases
as of  9/14/2020  
23,180 forecast cases on 9/26/2020
21,020 forecast cases on 10/3/2020
18,383 forecast cases on 10/10/2020
N/A forecast cases on 10/17/2020

 

The values for the recent actual data and the forecasts in the graph are in the table below:

 
    Forecast Total  Cases Lower Confidence Bound Upper Confidence Bound Total Actual  Cases Forecast Error  Cases % Error New Actual  Cases
 
9/20/2020   787,027 781,885 792,168 786,168 859 0.1% 2,855
9/21/2020   790,741 782,523 798,959 790,096 645 0.1% 3,928

 

9/22/2020   794,455 783,199 805,710
9/23/2020   798,168 783,775 812,562
9/24/2020   801,882 784,211 819,554
9/25/2020   805,596 784,495 826,698
9/26/2020   809,310 784,624 833,997
9/27/2020   813,024 784,599 841,450
9/28/2020   816,738 784,422 849,054
9/29/2020   820,452 784,098 856,807
9/30/2020   824,166 783,629 864,703
10/1/2020   827,880 783,020 872,740
10/2/2020   831,594 782,275 880,913
10/3/2020   835,308 781,397 889,219
10/4/2020   839,022 780,388 897,656
10/5/2020   842,736 779,253 906,219
10/6/2020   846,450 777,994 914,905
10/7/2020   850,164 776,615 923,713
10/8/2020   853,878 775,117 932,638
10/9/2020   857,592 773,503 941,680
10/10/2020   861,306 771,777 950,835
10/11/2020   865,019 769,938 960,100
10/12/2020   868,733 767,991 969,476
10/13/2020   872,447 765,937 978,958
10/14/2020   876,161 763,778 988,545
10/15/2020   879,875 761,515 998,235
10/16/2020   883,589 759,151 1,008,028
10/17/2020   887,303 756,687 1,017,920

 

Date Total Actual  Cases

 

7/25/2020 446,452
7/26/2020 452,288
7/27/2020 458,121
7/28/2020 470,762
7/29/2020 484,913
7/30/2020 492,934
7/31/2020 500,556
8/1/2020 506,613
8/2/2020 512,175
8/3/2020 516,851
8/4/2020 526,685
8/5/2020 530,606
8/6/2020 541,339
8/7/2020 546,814
8/8/2020 554,388
8/9/2020 559,746
8/10/2020 574,231
8/11/2020 578,946
8/12/2020 591,376
8/13/2020 597,984
8/14/2020 613,101
8/15/2020 617,994
8/16/2020 623,873
8/17/2020 629,415
8/18/2020 638,140
8/19/2020 647,274
8/20/2020 652,267
8/21/2020 658,900
8/22/2020 664,435
8/23/2020 669,280
8/24/2020 675,561
8/25/2020 681,032
8/26/2020 687,004
8/27/2020 691,821
8/28/2020 697,385
8/29/2020 702,038
8/30/2020 705,951
8/31/2020 712,475
9/1/2020 715,617
9/2/2020 721,281
9/3/2020 726,018
9/4/2020 730,662
9/5/2020 735,314
9/6/2020 738,856
9/7/2020 740,965
9/8/2020 744,344
9/9/2020 747,290
9/10/2020 750,961
9/11/2020 754,905
9/12/2020 758,933
9/13/2020 761,728
9/14/2020 765,134
9/15/2020 768,204
9/16/2020 771,321
9/17/2020 775,037
9/18/2020 779,491
9/19/2020 783,313


Forecast Statistics Value

Alpha 1.00
Beta 0.25
Gamma 0.00
MASE 0.07
SMAPE 0.00
MAE 461.32
RMSE 555.41

The Data used in this CA Cases Forecast

The Prior Weeks CA Forecasts

Please contact us for more information and for a forecast for your particular location or situation:

02/12/2022

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