Plan4 Co - US Total Deaths Forecasts for COVID-19

US Total Base System Deaths Forecasts for COVID Deaths - with Data through Saturday 09/12/20, and forecasts 4 weeks ahead thru Saturday 10/10/20

Summary:

• These Plan4Co base system daily deaths forecasts show that US Total Cumulative Deaths will grow consistently over the next 4 weeks - by another 13.5% versus 14.3% actual growth from 4 weeks ago.
• The Ensemble Forecasts  CDC - Ensemble Forecasts  and https://viz.covid19forecasthub.org/  are usually updated by mid-week - this week updated on 09/17. "At the national level, the ensemble model’s best guess is that we will see between 4,600 and 5,000 deaths each week for the next four weeks with around 212,000 deaths by October 10 (Figure 1). For the week ending October 10, the ensemble forecasts that reported COVID-19 deaths in the US will be between 3,000 and 7,100 (95% prediction interval: 2,986 - 7,087)."
• The forecast for week 1, ending Saturday 09/19, will be compared to the actual reported data from either NYT delayed or JHC daily.
  • for week 1, ending 09/19/20, the actual is 199,259. The Plan4Co forecast was 0.5% higher at 200,218. The Ensemble forecast was 0.4% lower at 198,410.

Ensemble Forecasts - 09/12/20

The graph and the tables below show the detailed forecasts and 95% confidence intervals:

The values for the recent actual data and the forecasts in the graph are in the table below: